2019 EU Origination Projections

Published on March 8, 2019

Full year 2018 origination data is now in for the large swathes of the EU non-bank lending sector that report origination volume*. This allows us to report on some totals for 2018 and to make some estimates for 2019.

 

 
As in previous years, these forecasts are purely quantitative, i.e. they are projections rather than estimates. We make a projection for each originator based on the average growth rate observed over the previous two years. Because seasonality has a significant part to play, we then identify the average quarterly deviation over the prior three years, and apply that to each quarter. In essence this is an extrapolation with an adjustment for seasonality.
 
We project a figure of €4.9bn of new lending in 2019, which equates to a 47.5% increase on the 2018 total of €3.32bn. This represents a moderation of the break-neck pace of growth over the past few years, most recently over 90% growth in 2018. By segment real estate lending is expected to lead the way albeit from a very low base. Meanwhile consumer, which continues to be by far the largest sector, will grow at the second fastest rate – over 50% – a moderation from over 100% growth seen last year, but still mightily impressive. 
 
Business lending will be the slowest segment growing at 26% year over year having already moderated to 29% growth in 2018. 
 
Credimi was amongst the fastest growing EU originators in 2018, and the fastest in the receivables segment. Ignazio Rocco, CEO and Founder commented: 
“We are excited by the results achieved in 2018. In less than two years from the market introduction Credimi has lent over 350 million euros to 3,500 companies of all sizes and sectors”.

Meanwhile in the real estate segment Estate Guru delivered the fastest year on year growth rate. Founder and CEO Marek Pärtel observed “In 2019, EstateGuru will be entering new European markets and offering our investors even more opportunities to diversify their investments among property backed loans”.