Q3 marketplace lending volumes, in both the UK and Europe, are tracking ahead of our expectations. Our projected full year volume expectations are based on an extrapolation of historic quarterly growth rates. (We use quarterly growth rates because of the seasonal variations to lending activity).
For Q3 UK volumes came in 11% head of our expectation driven by higher than expected year on year growth in SME and property lending. In the EU Q3 volumes came in 10% ahead of expectations driven higher than expected year on year growth in consumer and property lending.
Whilst we will not change our Q4 expectations, it is worth noting that this puts both geographies on track to beat full year expectations. Given that this forecasting methodology is based off an extrapolation of quarterly growth rates this denotes an acceleration in year on year lending growth for both regions.
The charts below illustrate the revised Full Year extrapolations, accounting for Q3 coming in ahead of expectations, and show the UK now on track to reach a 2018 total of £6bn, and the EU nearly EUR3bn.